Premier League Match Predictions | Opta Analyst

With the help of our AI-powered supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.

The Premier League season in 2023-24 is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory.

We have a three-way title race, with defending champions Manchester City the team to beat, and Arsenal and Liverpool pushing them until the end. Meanwhile, almost half the division started the campaign with realistic hopes of European qualification.

There is set to be an equally intense battle to avoid relegation, with playing in the Premier League now more valuable financially than ever before.

Our AI-powered Opta supercomputer has been making its match picks for every fixture over the course of a hugely exciting season.

Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League predictions, and be sure to check back here every week.

Matchweek 34

The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of the upcoming weekend of Premier League football.

Our predictive model has made its picks for the latest round of matches in what remains a crucial period of the season at both ends of the league table, after last week’s round delivered plenty of thrills and spills.

The system did not have its best weekend last time out, but let’s go easy on the supercomputer – it was hard for anyone to predict that Crystal Palace would beat Liverpool at Anfield, or that Aston Villa would then snatch victory over Arsenal, swinging the title race in Manchester City’s favour. We all have bad weeks.

Matchday 34 is not a complete lineup of games, given Man City, Manchester United and Chelsea are in FA Cup semi-final action, but there are still seven fixtures to get our teeth stuck into.

There are three games on Saturday, with Luton Town – who could get, temporarily at least, out of the bottom three – facing Brentford at home, while there is a big clash between Sheffield United and Burnley at the bottom, albeit both of those teams seem set to go down.

Arsenal, still reflecting on their Champions League exit at the hands of Bayern Munich, have the chance to get back on track when they take on Wolves, and the Gunners quickly need a win to prevent their season from crumbling away.

Sunday sees a points-deduction derby between Everton and Nottingham Forest, in what could be a pivotal match in the relegation battle at Goodison Park.

Villa take on Bournemouth, Palace go up against West Ham and Liverpool visit Fulham. Like Arsenal, they will hope to take advantage of Man City’s FA Cup duties.

Ahead of what looks set to be another entertaining round of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.

Premier League Predictions Matchweek 33: The Quick Hits

  • Aston Villa, Liverpool and Arsenal are all favourites to clinch victories against Bournemouth, Fulham and Wolves respectively.
  • There are some huge clashes at the bottom of the table, with our model struggling to separate the relegation strugglers.
  • Sheffield United vs Burnley is the most likely match to be drawn, at 29.9%.

Luton will move above Everton and Forest should they overcome Brentford, though the Bees know they are within touching distance of safety themselves. Thomas Frank’s team are made the favourites, with a 41% win probability to the Hatters’ 31.5%. The threat of a draw is 27.5%.

Brentford have won four of their last eight away league games against Luton (L4), having won just three of their first 27 visits in the Football League beforehand (D5 L19).

The Hatters have won just one of their last 12 Premier League games (D3 L8), though it was in their last home game against Bournemouth (2-1). Rob Edwards’ side are yet to win back-to-back home league games this season.

Another big clash at the bottom also comes on Saturday, when Burnley head to Bramall Lane to face bottom-club Sheffield United. This game is the most likely to be drawn this matchday, at 29.9%. The Blades have a 31.1% likelihood of winning, while Burnley are handed a 38.8% chance.

History is actually on the Blades’ side. They have lost just one of their last 20 home league games against Burnley (W14 D5), going down 3- 2 in December 2008.

However, only one of the five Premier League games between two promoted teams this season has been won by the home team (D1 L3), which occurred in the reverse fixture between Burnley and Sheffield United back in December (5-0).

Premier League MD 34 predictions

Arsenal will not have an easy task as they bid to bounce back from their defeats to Villa and Bayern in what is likely to be a testing away trip to face Wolves. Gary O’Neil’s side have already beaten Manchester City and Tottenham at Molineux this season.

However, the Gunners have won their last five Premier League games against Wolves and have kept a clean sheet in each of their last five away top-flight games. That is their joint-longest such run in the club’s history and they will now look to become the first team to record a clean sheet in six consecutive EPL away games since Liverpool between December and March in 2014-15.

Bukayo Saka has been crucial to Arsenal’s away form, with seven goals and one assist in his last seven EPL road games. He has been directly involved in 13 away goals overall this season, the most by an Arsenal player in a single campaign since Alexis Sánchez’s 20 in 2016-17.

Arsenal go into the match with a 51.3% win probability, while Wolves are down at 21.8% with the draw given a decent chance at 26.9%.

Villa are in pole position to secure a top-four finish after their impressive win at Arsenal was coupled with Spurs losing to Newcastle last weekend. Now, they will look to continue their momentum with a home match against Bournemouth.

Key to the hosts’ hopes as ever will be Ollie Watkins, who has scored 19 goals and assisted 10 times in the top flight this season. He is on the brink of becoming just the third English player to score 20 or more goals and assist 10 or more goals in a 38-game season after Frank Lampard in 2009-10 (22 goals, 14 assists) and Harry Kane in 2020-21 (23 goals, 14 assists).

Ollie Watkins goal involvements 2023-24

But beating Bournemouth is not something many sides have found straightforward of late. Since 11 November, only the Premier League’s top four teams have won more points than Bournemouth (36).

Still, Villa are strongly favoured by the Opta supercomputer. At 56.1%, their win probability is the highest across the seven games taking place this week, with Bournemouth down at 18.8%.

Liverpool had a miserable home defeat to Crystal Palace last time out and now have little margin for error in the title race as they prepare to take on Fulham at Craven Cottage. The Reds are looking to avoid losing consecutive Premier League games for the first time since April 2023, when they suffered back-to-back defeats to Bournemouth and Manchester City.

They will have to improve their form in London this season. Liverpool have won only two out of their five trips to the capital.

But the Reds have scored in 19 straight away matches, already their best figure in the Premier League era, and go into this clash as clear favourites with the Opta prediction model. At 53.2%, Liverpool are seen as the most likely away team to win this week, with Fulham’s chances of an upset standing at 20.5% going into the game.

Another huge relegation six-pointer takes place on Sunday, as Forest take on Everton. Sean Dyche’s team are the very slight favourites, at 39.3%, though they do come into this one on the back of a 6-0 hammering at Chelsea and on a run of one win in 15 league matches. Forest have a 31.4% chance, with the draw threat at 29.3%.

Victory for Everton could see them move five points clear of the bottom three, should Luton lose to Brentford, while a win for Forest would see them leapfrog the Toffees.

Forest have won just one of their last eight Premier League games against Everton (D2 L5), with that victory coming at Goodison Park in January 1999 under Ron Atkinson (1-0).

That said, of the 17 ever-present sides in the Premier League since the start of last season, Everton have won the fewest home games (10), earned the fewest home points (37), lost the most home games (17) and scored the fewest home goals (32).

Crystal Palace’s big win at Anfield dragged them further clear of danger, and like Brentford, it feels like the Eagles are very close to ensuring their Premier League status for another season. A meeting with West Ham could provide the perfect opportunity to do just that.

Oliver Glasner’s team are given a 33.1% chance of success, while the Hammers are slight favourites at 37.6%.

West Ham, though, have won just one of their last six Premier League games (D3 L2) and just two of their nine league games immediately following a European midweek game this season (D4 L3).

This will be West Ham boss David Moyes’ first Premier League meeting with Glasner, the 148th different manager he has faced in the competition. Only Arsène Wenger has faced more (153). Moyes has registered a win over 109 of managers he’s come up against, with Wenger (136) and Alex Ferguson (129) the only two managers to defeat more.

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