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Somalia Weekly Weather Forecast – Valid From 18 to 24 April 2024 – Somalia

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Moderate to heavy rains are expected over several areas in the Southwest and Hirshabelle States with chances of very heavy rains over some areas in Bay and Sool-Sanaag regions. Light to moderate rain is expected over vast inland areas of Puntland with tendency of general dry conditions over the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions.

Weather Review for the Week Between 10 and 17 April 2024

The last week was marked by cloudiness across several parts of the country with light to moderate rainfall received over some places particularly in Bay, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Hiraan, Bakool and Banaadir regions. Somaliland and Puntland experienced dry conditions with little or no rainfall reported over the last one week. Cloud breaks in some areas led to elevated surface air temperature with reported thermal discomfort.

The following stations (Figure 1) received more than 1 mm of rain between 8 and 15 April 2024: in Qansax-dhere (20.3 mm), Dinsor (2.9 mm), and Baidoa (24 mm) in Bay region, Wanle-weyn (23.5 mm) and Awdheegle (3 mm), in lower Shabelle region, , Jamaame (3 mm), and Kismayo (5 mm) in Lower Jubba region, Bualle (38 mm) in Middle Jubba region, Mogadishu (27.9 mm) in Banadir region, Luuq (16.08 mm) in Gedo region, Bulla-burto (2.5 mm) in Hiran region and Hudur (1.5 mm) in Bakool region.

The runoff from the rains within the middle and lower catchments of Shabelle River have led to a sharp rise in the water levels. Subsequently two river breakages at Maandheere which is located approximately 12 km to the southeast of Jowhar have resulted in floods in the nearby villages submerging farmlands and causing impediments to vehicular movements between Jowhar and Balcad. Fortunately, no fatalities have been reported so far. The flood water is expected to extend to the villages located on the south of mandheere namely: Daymo-same, Jilaale, Boodaale, Bacaadley, Raqayloow, and Buurdheere.

Weather Forecast for the Week Between 18 and 24 April 2024

During the week between 18 and 24 April 2024, and based on NOAA-NCEP GFS, moderate to heavy rains are expected over several areas in the South West and Hirshabelle States with chances of very heavy rains over some areas in Bay and Sool-Sanaag regions. Light to moderate rain is expected over vast inland areas of Puntland with tendency of general dry conditions over the coastal areas of Bari and Nugaal regions. The chances of wetter conditions might be supported by the stagnation of Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) index over the eastern parts of Indian Ocean. The small amplitude of the index however signifies weak cycles of the MJO. This therefore is associated with decreased skill and reliability of extended range forecasts. The tendency of general dry conditions over Bari is likely to be driven by the low-level easterly winds blowing parallel to the northeastern coastline which limits the incursions of precipitable water inland. The anticipated northward spread of the rains from South West into Hirshabelle and possibly Galgaduud is favored by the northward movement of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

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